As college football fans, we see it every week - games that make everyone scratch their heads. “How did they beat them?” Perhaps more importantly, “how did they cover?” Very slowly, college football has turned into the NFL, where any team can truly beat any other team. Case in point: look at all the betting lines for NFL games. Rarely do you see one over 8 points. Just as parity has consumed the NFL, it has crept into the college game as well. For the NFL, the defining moments were free agency and the salary cap. So what gives with the college game? Here’s a few guesses:
1. Talent everywhere – In the NFL, there is not a huge gap between the most talented and least talented football teams. Granted, this is not quite the case in the college game. For instance, there is certainly a tremendous talent gap between Texas and say, Syracuse. However, the gaps between the top level teams and the mid level teams are not that significant. As to why, one could point to the number of good high school players. As football has exploded in popularity, more kids are playing it in school. Other than cross country and swimming, football does not have to compete with any other fall sports. With the pool of good players increasing and scholarship limitations, the midlevel schools have more quality players to choose from.
2. Coaching talent everywhere – This is simple economics. Salaries for football coaches are sky rocketing out of control. With more money to be made, more talented people are staying in the profession. Good coaches plus good players equals good football teams.
3. Cable TV – Thirty years ago, the top level schools could get a lot of talented kids by pointing to the fact that they will get more exposure because their team was on TV all the time. Enter ESPN and the rest of the networks. Football is everywhere. You would almost have to try to not get on TV. Saturday, I watched Wofford play Chattanooga. Thirty years ago, kids wanted to go to Notre Dame and Alabama because they were always on TV. Now, kids are exposed to every team via television. That, and they know the NFL will find them no matter where they are. Listen to those NFL player introductions when guys say where they are from. Division II, I-AA, the Patriot League, etc.
4. The spread offense – Three yards and a cloud of dust is no longer the norm. Having a 220 pound tailback is great, but I watched Oregon State beat USC with a guy shorter than me. Florida plays a back that is less than 170 pounds. Quarterbacks can throw just as well as they can run. A bad day by your defense can equal a lot of points in a hurry.
5. Speed up rule changes – This is simple math. Let’s say Oklahoma plays Indiana. Blowout, right? Well what if you made the game four 3 minute quarters. Now Indiana has a decent shot. If Oklahoma turns the ball over just one time, that might be all Indiana needs. Both teams would get four possessions, max. Now change the game again – eight 15 minute quarters. Indiana has no chance. Oklahoma just wears them down, and depth becomes a huge factor. Bottom line – the shorter the game, the better chance for the underdog.
The next logical question is whether this is good for college football. In my opinion, it is. The “you never know” aspect of the NFL is one reason it has become so popular. Fans of lesser teams will always think they’re one year away from a great season. And then there is the sheer entertainment aspect of the Cinderella upset. (Just look at the NCAA tournament). Everyone loves the underdog.
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