Four hundred years ago, there was no such thing as a black swan. All swans were white and no one thought any different. Then some Dutchman made his way through Western Australia and found a black swan. This discovery gave the civilized world two things: a new bird and a new name for an event that was previously thought impossible.
The Black Swan Theory was developed by an author named Nassim Taleb. The theory involves the study of highly improbable events – like the Stock Market Crash. More specifically, Taleb describes these types of events as unpredictable with unquantifiable probabilities. Further, Taleb diminishes mankind’s attempts to rationalize these events after the fact. A Black Swan Event, according to Taleb, is something that can not be predicted and defies explanation. Taleb basically tells us to guard ourselves against the bad ones (no matter how unlikely) and enjoy the good ones.
Last week, Carolina fans witnessed one of the good ones. The Gamecocks took home the hardware from Omaha in thrilling fashion. The victory gave Carolina its first national title in a major sport. For Carolina fans, it was a Black Swan Event.
Now, before Carolina fans grumble that I would refer to a Gamecock national title as something akin to the Earth colliding into the Moon, let me explain. Certainly the success of the baseball program in recent years had the signs of a World Series champion in the making. But in looking at the events that make up this championship, one marvels at how unreal this past month truly was.
Consider:
The team played from behind during all three regional games.
After winning a one run Game 1 against Coastal, they were down two in the bottom of the eighth in Game 2 with two outs, only to hit a three run homer and take the lead.
After losing the first game to Oklahoma, they came back and beat the number one team in the country.
Down to their last strike in the bottom of the 12th, they tied and eventually won their second game against Oklahoma.
Needing to beat Clemson twice, they did just that – holding the hot hitting Tigers to four runs over the two games.
In Game 1 against Clemson, they pitched a freshman that had never started a game for them. He went nine innings.
They held UCLA to two runs in twenty innings.
They won Game 2 in the bottom of the 11th.
They were first College World Series team to win six games in a row.
Their tournament ERA was almost one full run lower than the next team.
Oh, and they won it in the last game ever played at Rosenblatt.
One has to shake their head. Gamecock fans got to experience a true miracle. Even if they are lucky enough to see another national championship, it will never happen in this storybook fashion again. Now if only we could find a garnet swan.
1 comment:
Good Comments, Mr. Mayor.
There is one problem, however, that is thoroughly representative of the average Gamecock fan’s chronic and incurable negativity. At the same time this rare [and perhaps unique] black swan took flight…at the same time Wingo was giving his best Ray Lewis impersonation at the Colonial Center…at the same the Gamecocks actually won something, USC fans were still complaining. In the first moment of legitimate athletic glory in the school’s 209 year history, every good self-loathing Gamecock fan took time out of the celebration to air their grievances: “ESPN is so biased. They said UCLA has excellent pitching! They must hate us!”…”Even though we won the college world series, did you see how few USC players were named to the ‘All CWS’ team? We were discriminated against.” Always the victim, the Gamecock fans played their role with steadiness that transcended the victory.
The other problem…and I doubt many Gamecock fans have the guts to admit it…is the identity of the hero. The silent thoughts of the average racist Gamecock fan:
“Why did the hero have to be Jackie Bradley, Jr? Why couldn’t it have been Enders???!!! You know…A good ‘ole boy from Greer! What about Scott Wingo?
A Mauldin high hero!”
Admit it Mr. Racist Gamecock fan: Bradley’s heroics dull some of the shine off that CWS trophy. On the bright-side, you did manage to maintain your reputation for negativity at all costs.
-Grant Thornton
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